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Ahead of the Curve provides you with analysis and insight into today's global financial markets. The latest news and views from global stock, bond, commodity and FOREX markets are discussed. Rajveer Rawlin received his MBA in finance from the Cardiff Metropolitan University, Wales, UK. He is an avid market watcher having followed capital markets in the US and India since 1993. His research interests includes areas of Capital Markets, Banking, Investment Analysis and Portfolio Management and has over 20 years of experience in the above areas covering the US and Indian Markets. He has several publications in the above areas. The views expressed here are his own and should not be construed as advice to buy or sell securities.

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Saturday, 10 March 2018

Market Signals for the US stock market S and P 500 Index and Indian Stock Market Nifty Index for the Week beginning March 12

Indicator
Weekly Level / Change
Implication for
S & P 500
Implication for Nifty*
S & P 500
2787, 3.54%
Bullish
Bullish
Nifty
10227, -2.21%
Neutral **
Bearish
China Shanghai Index
3307, 1.62%
Bullish
Bullish
Gold
1324, 0.05%
Neutral
Neutral
WTIC Crude
62.04, 1.29%
Bullish
Bullish
Copper
3.14, 0.37%
Neutral
Neutral
Baltic Dry Index
1201, 0.42%
Neutral
Neutral
Euro
1.2307, -0.09%
Neutral
Neutral
Dollar/Yen
106.77, 0.98%
Bullish
Bullish
Dow Transports
10740, 3.94%
Bullish
Bullish
High Yield (ETF)
36.09, 0.25%
Neutral
Neutral
US 10 year Bond Yield
2.89%, 1.30%
Bearish
Bearish
Nyse Summation Index
164, 1023.97%
Bullish
Neutral
US Vix
14.64, -25.27%
Bullish
Bearish
Skew
128
Neutral
Neutral
20 DMA, S and P 500
2714, Above
Bullish
Neutral
50 DMA, S and P 500
2742, Above
Bullish
Neutral
200 DMA, S and P 500
2571, Above
Bullish
Neutral
20 DMA, Nifty
10420, Below
Neutral
Bearish
50 DMA, Nifty
10606, Below
Neutral
Bearish
200 DMA, Nifty
10140, Above
Neutral
Bullish
India Vix
14.52, 3.22%
Neutral
Bearish
Dollar/Rupee
64.93, -0.39%
Neutral
Neutral


Overall


S & P 500


Nifty

Bullish Indications
10
6
Bearish Indications
1
6
Outlook
Bullish
Neutral
Observation
The S and P 500 rallied and the Nifty fell last week. Indicators are mixed.
The markets have made important tops. Time to watch those stops.
On the Horizon
New Zealand – GDP, China – Industrial production, Euro Zone – German ZEW economic sentiment, CPI, Switzerland – SNB rate decision, U.S – CPI, Retail sales, Oil inventories, Canada – Poloz speech
*Nifty
India’s Benchmark Stock Market Index
Raw Data
Courtesy Google finance, Stock charts, investing.com
**Neutral
Changes less than 0.5% are considered neutral


stock market signals march 12
Image from marketwatch.com

The S and P 500 rallied and the Nifty sharply under performed last week. Indicators are mixed for the upcoming week. Quantitative tightening by the FED is yet to be priced in fully. The markets are still trading well over 3 standard deviations above their long term averages from which corrections usually result. Divergences in high yield and surging bond yields are flashing warning signs. An interest rate shock can’t be ruled out. Indian market volatility is still below US market volatility so there is complacency and some catch up left on the down side. The critical levels to watch are 2800 (up) and 2775 (down) on the S & P and 10300 (up) and 10150 (down) on the Nifty. A significant breach of the above levels could trigger the next big move in the above markets. You can check out last week’s report for a comparison. Love your thoughts and feedback.

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