About

Rajveer Rawlin received his MBA in finance from the Cardiff Metropolitan University, Wales, UK. He is an avid market watcher having followed capital markets in the US and India since 1993. His research interests includes areas of Capital Markets, Banking, Investment Analysis and Portfolio Management and has over 20 years of experience in the above areas covering the US and Indian Markets. He has several publications in the above areas. The views expressed here are his own and should not be construed as advice to buy or sell securities.

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Sunday, 13 August 2017

Market Signals for the US stock market S and P 500 Index and Indian Stock Market Nifty Index for the Week beginning August 14


Indicator
Weekly Level / Change
Implication for
S & P 500
Implication for Nifty*
S & P 500
2441, -1.43%
Bearish
Bearish
Nifty
9711, -3.56%
Neutral **
Bearish
China Shanghai Index
3209, -1.64%
Bearish
Bearish
Gold
1294, 2.32%
Bullish
Bullish
WTIC Crude
48.82, -1.53%
Bearish
Bearish
Copper
2.91, 0.94%
Bullish
Bullish
Baltic Dry Index
1092, 6.74%
Bullish
Bullish
Euro
1.1820, 0.39%
Neutral
Neutral
Dollar/Yen
109.17, -1.36%
Bearish
Bearish
Dow Transports
9199, -0.85%
Bearish
Bearish
High Yield (ETF)
36.77, -1.21%
Bearish
Bearish
US 10 year Bond Yield
2.18%, -3.44%
Bullish
Bullish
Nyse Summation Index
460, -35.36%
Bearish
Neutral
US Vix
15.51, 54.64%
Bearish
Bearish
Skew
135
Neutral
Neutral
20 DMA, S and P 500
2470, Below
Bearish
Neutral
50 DMA, S and P 500
2448, Below
Bearish
Neutral
200 DMA, S and P 500
2339, Above
Bullish
Neutral
20 DMA, Nifty
9962, Below
Neutral
Bearish
50 DMA, Nifty
9775, Below
Neutral
Bearish
200 DMA, Nifty
9004, Above
Neutral
Bullish
India Vix
15.19, 33.41%
Neutral
Bearish
Dollar/Rupee
64.08, 0.52%
Neutral
Bearish


Overall


S & P 500


Nifty


Bullish Indications
5

5

Bearish Indications
10
12

Outlook
Bearish
Bearish

Observation
The S and P 500 and the Nifty experienced sell offs. Indicators are bearish.
The market is topping. Time to tighten those stops.


On the Horizon
Japan – GDP, China – Industrial production, Australia- RBA minutes, Employment data, Euro Zone – German GDP, CPI, UK – CPI, Employment data, Retail sales, Canada – CPI, U.S – Retail sales, Oil inventories, FOMC minutes






*Nifty
India’s Benchmark Stock Market Index


Raw Data
Courtesy Google finance, Stock charts, investing.com


**Neutral
Changes less than 0.5% are considered neutral




stock market signals august 14

The S and P 500 and the Nifty sold off significantly last week. Signals are bearish for the upcoming week. Past and future FED rate hikes are yet to be priced in and sentiment indicators are finally shifting from complacency. Transports and the Yen are flashing warning signs. The markets are still trading at 3 standard deviations above their long term averages from which corrections usually result. The critical levels to watch are 2450 (up) and 2430 (down) on the S & P and 9800 (up) and 9600 (down) on the Nifty. A significant breach of the above levels could trigger the next big move in the above markets. You can check out last week’s report for a comparison. Love your thoughts and feedback.

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